Is the Wye is a normal river again?

Editor

The Salmon Atlas
Comparing the salmon or sea trout rod catches of neighbouring rivers is a very good way of illustrating whether or not a river has its own specific problems or exciting solutions.

Rivers close to one another often run through similar landscapes, share the same rocks types and suffer the same rainfall and even similar human interference! In migratory fish terms they might also share similar conditions during the spawning cycle, smolt migration and even experience similar conditions, migration routes and hazards at sea.

Fishing conditions also strongly influence fish catches and as everyone knows, river height is very important in salmon fishing. A slowly falling river is normally ideal! It is little wonder therefore that neighbouring spate rivers can show a remarkable similarity in rod catch trends over the years.

With this in mind we should expect neighbouring rivers, which share similar characteristics to show similar catch trends over the years. And more importantly, if not, then why not?

Here are a few examples of neighbouring rivers which show remarkably similar trends over the last 19 years.

North East England

The Tyne and the Wear.

tyne.gif


wear.gif




Scotland

Findhorn and the Deveron

dev-find.gif


Tay and the Spey

tay-spey.gif



South West England


Teign and the Exe

teign.gif


exe.gif




North West England


Lune and the Ribble

lune.gif


ribble.gif



Wales

Teifi and Tywi

tywi.gif


teifi.gif




So what of the Wye?

Here we plot the Wye rod catches against the combined average of its nearest neighbouring salmon rivers the Usk and the Severn over a 19 year period (1990 – 2008).

This chart below shows a dramatic decline of the Wye which is quite different from its neighbouring rivers. We surely can conclude that it suffered specific in-river issues. Even during the decline, however, we can see similar trends with its neighbours, i.e. an improvement (from the previous year) on the Usk/Severn equates with improvement on the Wye.

wye-usk.gif


The chart directly above examines the trends during the last few years and shows (to my eyes anyway) that the Wye is now clearly following the same trends as its neighbours. It also indicates that the in-river issues which caused its dramatic decline have perhaps gone.

Another illustration of the Wye being back on track can be seen by comparing Wye catches against catches from 'River Wales'. River Wales here is the average annual catch from the other Welsh salmon rivers combined. The table below compares the two. (In order to compare on the same chart we've compared each one against its own average catch - where 1 respresents the average catch for the river - above 1 is better than average below is worse).

wye-v-wales.gif


This remarkable match corresponds to a correlation of nearly 87%. (100% is perfect)

There is still much work to do to restore the Wye to its former glory but I think these charts show that the Wye, thank goodness, is once again a ‘normal river’.


Colin Bradshaw
Salmon Atlas
 
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Stuart Smith

New member
...............There is much work to do to restore the Wye to its former glory but I think these charts show that the Wye, thank goodness, is once again a ‘normal river’.


Colin Bradshaw
Salmon Atlas

Colin,
Good summation, all we need to do now is to give it an injection of juvenile stock that will benefit from this stabilisation and go on to grow catches to 1980 levels!
 

Editor

The Salmon Atlas
There is no question in my mind that the Wye has turned the corner and will become a 'great' river once more.

As a scientist (in a previous life) I always look for similar items to contrast and compare (as well as near neighbours).

If I were involved, the question I would ask myself is which salmon river in the world is the Wye most like?

Based on size, watershed geology/water chemistry I would, without hesitation, cite Tweed.

The Wye and Tweed both have their headwaters in the ancient slates and greywackes (siltstones) of the Ordovician and Silurian periods and both have their lower reaches cutting through red sandstones of the younger (but still very old) Devonian. This geology shapes their flow characteristics and both have a gorgeous elegant, almost sophisticated flow unlike wild granitic cousins such as the Aberdeenshire Dee.

Tweed is still one of the very best salmon rivers in the world and of course the Wye used to be, so I suggest ‘twin’ with Tweed and do whatever they are doing!

PS. IMHO Wye salmon do not need a hatchery but many of the Wye-valley human population do, so, if it helps bring the collective parties together for the good of the Wye then bring it on! -- especially if it became a genetic study/research centre rather than just a stockie filler.

Good luck to all concerned.

Colin.
 

Simon Evans

New member
Cb, I agree with what you say except that 2008 shows a marked divergence from the neighbouring rivers.

I argue that whilst efforts to date have clearly stabalised the Wye salmon stocks (2002-2007), 2008 was the first generation of 'recovery', and the Wye has diverged from its neighbours again this year where despite a fall, provisonal catch estimates suggest that the Wye catch is once again around 1.5 times the average of the Severn and the Usk. All recovering rivers when a single issue is removed seem to do so with generational steps (Wye at turn of century, Tyne 1980-2000). The confusion on the Wye will be the ever increasing quantum of restoration work completed by WUF and its partners which should accelerate divergence as the newly available/ improved juvenile habitat is progressively filled and starts to generate additional smolts.

A second confusion is that there is encouraging news from the juvenule surveys on the Usk which are showing the improvements as a result of the Usk Project. These will feed through into increased runs for that system over the next few years

L1 that as you know is a tad simplistic;), the questions as I see them are;

What is the best thing we can do to acclerate this recovery? NB it will not be constant across the catchment as different parts appear to have markedly different strength stocks.

What is going to happen with sea survival? and the follow up question, do we need to adapt our approach to compensate?

Simon
 

New Kid

New member
There is no question in my mind that the Wye has turned the corner and will become a 'great' river once more.

As a scientist (in a previous life) I always look for similar items to contrast and compare (as well as near neighbours).

If I were involved, the question I would ask myself is which salmon river in the world is the Wye most like?

Based on size, watershed geology/water chemistry I would, without hesitation, cite Tweed.

The Wye and Tweed both have their headwaters in the ancient slates and greywackes (siltstones) of the Ordovician and Silurian periods and both have their lower reaches cutting through red sandstones of the younger (but still very old) Devonian. This geology shapes their flow characteristics and both have a gorgeous elegant, almost sophisticated flow unlike wild granitic cousins such as the Aberdeenshire Dee.

Tweed is still one of the very best salmon rivers in the world and of course the Wye used to be, so I suggest ‘twin’ with Tweed and do whatever they are doing!

PS. IMHO Wye salmon do not need a hatchery but many of the Wye-valley human population do, so, if it helps bring the collective parties together for the good of the Wye then bring it on! -- especially if it became a genetic study/research centre rather than just a stockie filler.

Good luck to all concerned.

Colin.

Good Stuff!

Some interesting points come out of it from our perspective - ie one of working on Wye and Usk, two welsh rivers that currently account for over a third of the welsh catch (thirty+ welsh rivers in all and therefore have a bearing on the overall trend)

You touch in an earlier post on factors affecting welsh rivers and it seems to us that many of the negatives are being addressed - less sheep dips finding their way into rivers, reductions in atmospheric SO3 and better stock management. You might not be aware that both the Wye and Usk Foundation AND Environment Agency Wales have spent a very considerable sums across the whole Principality removing barriers, restoring damaged habitats, the latter through their substantial Sustainable Fisheries Project. The scheme has included some big fish access schemes.

It therefore comes as as no surprise to us that the overall trend in Wales is on the up....but it always reads better from an independent source!


Re comparisons between Wye and Tweed: (in my view) yes, there are some important similarities: Both rivers have addressed their barrier to migration issues and estuarial exploitation problems. Of the differences, three stand out: Wye has experienced the additional issue of the effects of acid rain, effectively wiping out the production from 17% of its catchment. The other is the general land management /diffuse issues. Tweed seems to have escaped the worst of agricultural intensification, compared to the Wye (esp Lugg area) and crucially, When the Tweed set about improving its stock, the earlier start allowed improvements to happen while there was still a sustainable level of fish running the river

I wonder if there are many still standing who can recall when Wye rod catches exceeded those of the Tweed (not total catches of course) but it certainly happened in the sixties. Catching up with them again would be a worthy goal!!!!

New Kid

PS Absolutely no need for humility in your hatchery opinion!
 
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Editor

The Salmon Atlas
Simon/New Kid

Thank you very much for adding meat to my bones. Very interesting and important points made. I speak only of course as an outsider - having only seen the Wye twice in my lifetime!

New Kid, you raised an important issue about Wye & Usk skewing "River Wales" average data by their numerical importance. So I thought I’d better test this.

Here is the chart which excludes both Wye and Usk, i.e. Wye v Other Welsh rivers (except Wye and Usk).

wye-v-wales2.gif



Results have changed little – Wye still normal :). Of course the dominant partners are now the Dee, Teifi and Twyi - but that said - the river which is closest of all to 'River Wales' (all rivers) is the Rheidol with 96.9% correlation! A Welsh index river if ever there was one.

River England also closely follows the Welsh trend but other nations differ. Norway is on a dangerous slide for many obvious reasons. Here are some charts to show what is happening elsewhere.

Regards

Colin.
 

New Kid

New member
Colin

Thats what I hoped you would say and it gave an opportunity to plug the rest of the work done in Wales - largely unsung in my view, by EAW.

.....All assuming of course that these changes have brought about these albeit modest improvements.

England seems to be a mixed bag and at the risk of putting an undue burden on you Colin, how does it break down by region? One imagines that NE and NW are the performers with SW and S perhaps lagging behind?

NK
 
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Editor

The Salmon Atlas
Ive just taken a quick look at the figures and each region of England shows a similar shaped trend to 'River England' with a good year in 2004. Growth from 2000 to 2008 for NE, Southern and NW is typically c. 50% (e.g. 2000=X, 2008=X * 1.5) SW is slower growth of around 20%.

These values are taken from linear slopes of best fit plotted for the average catches for each region over the period.

As Lord Kelvin said: "If you can not measure it, you can not improve it."
 

Tom Rigby

New member
The Wye used to be 10 times as productive as the severn, now that ratio is down to 1.5.

I'm obviously missing something.

The only thing that remains distinctive about the Wye is the preposterous ticket prices.
 
S

seeker

Guest
Simon/New Kid

I speak only of course as an outsider - having only seen the Wye twice in my lifetime

Well lets just say that just about says it all.
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Perhaps you should also consider why the goalposts have changed recently.
The official EA catch figure for the Wye was 766. Not the manufactured one you seem to be using. Previous figures for the graph were calculated the old way, by ACTUAL catch return figures, not those supplied by WUF.
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Quote Editor.
"There is no question in my mind that the Wye has turned the corner and will become a 'great' river once more."

This one could come back to haunt you sometime in the future I suspect.
Just what do you expect to result from this years pathetic stock?
 

Editor

The Salmon Atlas
In summary from 1990 to 2000 the figures show that Wye catches were out of the ordinary (in a negative way!) but since then the Wye catches are perfectly ordinary. Of course the challenge now is for the Wye catches to improve in an extra-ordinary way positively! But the rot has stopped as far as I can see from the data.

Typically how much is a day's fishing on Wye?


Colin
 
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Tom Rigby

New member
£30 to £45 per day on most of the beats advertised by WUF.

On the Severn a BAA ticket will cost you £30 for the whole year and I can think of plenty of their stretches that are far more productive than the WUF DT average, and a few that are as good, if not better, than anything on offer from them .

Catches on the best of the WUF fishing the Gromain/llanstephan/rectory season ticket ,which if I remember right is over £400, (NK or LDO can give the precise amount) are certainly no better to the ticket water around the Severn where I live in worcestershire which would cost you £60 for a couple of club season books.

Wye prices also don't compare favourably to the main welsh salmon rivers like the Tywi, Teifi and Dee.
 

Editor

The Salmon Atlas
On the Severn a BAA ticket will cost you £30 for the whole year

Thanks Tom

The Severn sounds like a bargain to me! What we have in the North East of England is under-reporting of fish catches because of a general fear of rent price increases or worse beat sales.

A tiny stretch of the river Wear with guide price £3,000 went for £23,000 last year. I was at the auction and could not believe what I was hearing. You had to be a mountain goat to even get down to the beat -- and single bank.

Anyway, the Severn is a huge river and I regularly see it on the TV when it spills into several counties! I'll give it its own forum now. At those prices it deserves it!

Colin.
 
S

seeker

Guest
In summary from 1990 to 2000 the figures show that Wye catches were out of the ordinary (in a negative way!) but since then the Wye catches are perfectly ordinary. Of course the challenge now is for the Wye catches to improve in an extra-ordinary way positively! But the rot has stopped as far as I can see from the data.


Colin


An absolutely extraordinary statement.
 
Hi Tom,

is it fair to compare the price of club waters with private ones?

Where I fish on the Towy, the day tickets are 2-3 times the WUF prices on the Wye. WUF also operate the wash off policy, (not on the Towy, or the Tweed at up to £1000/day.) In 2009 I caught 2 salmon on the Wye in 6 days fishing, and none in 7 days on the Towy, (2 days of which were late season targeting salmon specifically.) Put the whole package together and it can't be considered totally over-priced.

I pay my money and take my chances, but prefer to do it without queueing for my turn down the pool, particually as I only get to go occaisionally.

James

---------- Post added at 04:52 ---------- Previous post was at 04:11 ----------

An interesting link.

http://colloque-saumon.oieau.fr/docu...ur2/Potter.ppt
 
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New Kid

New member
Simon/New Kid


New Kid, you raised an important issue about Wye & Usk skewing "River Wales" average data by their numerical importance. So I thought I’d better test this.

Here is the chart which excludes both Wye and Usk, i.e. Wye v Other Welsh rivers (except Wye and Usk).

wye-v-wales2.gif



Results have changed little – Wye still normal :). Of course the dominant partners are now the Dee, Teifi and Twyi - but that said - the river which is closest of all to 'River Wales' (all rivers) is the Rheidol with 96.9% correlation! A Welsh index river if ever there was one.

River England also closely follows the Welsh trend but other nations differ. Norway is on a dangerous slide for many obvious reasons. Here are some charts to show what is happening elsewhere.

Regards

Colin.

Colin : Returning to these interesting data, without putting you to too much trouble, are you able to say which of the welsh rivers are so to speak, below the line and which above?

Yours

NK
 

Editor

The Salmon Atlas
are you able to say which of the welsh rivers are so to speak, below the line and which above?

Yes, no trouble at all. I can plot a mathematical linear 'best fit' trend line which shows the overall trend across the period (2000-2008). The slope of this trend line illustrates the proportional speed of increase or decrease of the salmon rod catches. The starting number of the slope and the ending number are compared. This way we can compare river catch trends numerically over ther period.

Where:
0% rod catches staying the same over period
100% rod catch doubles over the period
50% half as much again
-50% rod catches have halved.

etc etc

406% Glaslyn
302% Tawe
239% Clwyd
142% Rheidol
138% Tywi
101% Dyfi
96% E+W.Cleddau
94% Nevern
84% Dee
65% Wye

56% River Wales

56% Usk
22% Taf
10% Ogwen
-1% Conwy
-3% Teifi
-13% Ogmore
-17% Mawddach
-67% Taff

You might be interested to know that the Tyne, the best salmon river in England, showed an improving trend of 55% over the same period.

You might also note that for the nine years prior to year 2000 the trend for the Wye was -68%

As Lord Kelvin said: "If you cannot measure you cannot improve."

Regards

Colin

* The raw data used in these calculations was taken from the Environment Agency's Publication, Fisheries Statistics Report 2008. Table 15 SUMMARY OF REPORTED SALMON ROD CATCH, 1998-2008.
 

New Kid

New member
Colin

Many thanks for this info. Now we shall puzzle at why there is such a pan Wales variation and what may be attributable to various actions taken

New Kid
 

Tom Rigby

New member
Hi Tom,

is it fair to compare the price of club waters with private ones?

Where I fish on the Towy, the day tickets are 2-3 times the WUF prices on the Wye. WUF also operate the wash off policy, (not on the Towy, or the Tweed at up to £1000/day.) In 2009 I caught 2 salmon on the Wye in 6 days fishing, and none in 7 days on the Towy, (2 days of which were late season targeting salmon specifically.) Put the whole package together and it can't be considered totally over-priced.

I pay my money and take my chances, but prefer to do it without queueing for my turn down the pool, particually as I only get to go occaisionally.

James

---------- Post added at 04:52 ---------- Previous post was at 04:11 ----------

An interesting link.

http://colloque-saumon.oieau.fr/docu...ur2/Potter.ppt


Hi James,

It is only after June 16th that there might be a problem in a couple of places with stationary wormers or with coarse anglers.

As the main run comes in before June 16th this makes comparisons with Wye DT and season prices fair.

Occassionally, I might have to wait my turn to fly fish a stretch of water on the middle Severn near me, but seeing as only a handful of us fly fish, and we are all friends, sharing the water is an enjoyable experience. Sometimes, if another angler's car or van is at this or that pull in, you just go up or down river to the next likely pool as there's no point all concentrating on the same spot.

But most of the time there is no issue. There is enough water to go round.
 
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